Record boxship capacity already delivered in 2024
BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen said more than 1m teu had been delivered in the first four months of 2024, representing a year-to-date record and an increase of 80% compared with the previous record. BIMCO expects delivery volumes to exceed 3m teu, 30% higher than the record set in 2023. Around 2m teu capacity is expected to be delivered in 2025, making it the third-highest year in deliveries, behind only 2023 and 2024. “When ships start increasing sailings via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, we will most likely see significant oversupply,” Rasmussen said. “Between 2019 and 2023, the fleet grew 21% while container volumes only grew 4%. Between 2023 and 2025, the fleet is expected to grow another 15%.”
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Maersk remains cautious on capacity outlook
Capacity shortages and strong demand have propped freight rates and will do so for another quarter. But beyond that, the looming threat of overcapacity remains, even if the Red Sea crisis continues. The duration of the Red Sea crisis will make a material difference to how long carriers can stave off the overcapacity that threatens the market, despite relatively strong demand, as available capacity grows by 2%-3% each quarter.
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Namibia’s Walvis Bay could become key green bunkering hub
The Port of Antwerp-Bruges is moving ahead with plans to develop the port of Walvis Bay in Namibia and transform it into a green hydrogen and ammonia center. The European port signed a partnership agreement to set out a plan to develop Walvis Bay’s North Port site into a green hydrogen hub and to finalize financing of the infrastructure developments needed. The North Port at Walvis Bay is a greenfield site but will be transformed into a 1,300-ha facility that can store 4m tonnes of ammonia annually.
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Shipping’s green fuel gold rush could create up to 4m jobs
Shipping’s push for decarbonization could create up to 4m new jobs globally by 2050, mainly in the energy industry, as low-emission fuels, such as green ammonia, require additional renewable electricity capacity. A study by the Rocky Mountain Institute, commissioned by the Global Maritime Forum, found the maritime sector could need more than 500m tonnes of renewable hydrogen-derived e-fuels by 2040 to hit the new targets the International Maritime Organization set. The study assumed 5,650 jobs would be created for every 1m tonnes of e-fuels produced per year during the initial investment phase, while the same number drops to 2,700 in the advanced phase of the industry.
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China State Shipbuilding Corp’s tech firm and Evergreen trial onboard carbon capture
Containership Ever Top (IMO: 9665619) is docked at a berth in Shanghai’s Yangshan port, loading and discharging like many other large boxships returning from Europe. But unlike the others, this 2014-built, 13,800 teu ship has an extra special cargo — the CO2 collected by its onboard carbon capture and storage (OCCS) system. Together, the manufacturer Qiyao Environmental Technology, a subsidiary of China State Shipbuilding Corp, and Taiwan’s Evergreen Lines, the shipowner, are about to complete the inaugural trial of the device. The results could determine whether this technology has the potential for wide adoption in long-haul trades in the future. The OCCS application also represents a useful cost-reduction tool for shipping firms engaging in Europe-related trades, where ships must pay a carbon tax under the EU carbon trading system. Exemptions apply if the CO2 is captured on board, permanently stored, or utilized under the legislative requirements, as noted in a study released in March by the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonization and Lloyd’s Register.
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Nitrous oxide emissions are no laughing matter
More data is needed on how much N2O, also known as laughing gas, will be emitted from ships burning ammonia as fuel. MAN Energy Solutions said it expected its new ammonia engine to emit “extremely low” amounts of nitrous oxide. Just how low, though, is “extremely low”? It remains the elusive question. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a byproduct of burning ammonia — something shipping hopes to do much more if it is to decarbonize. N2O is also a greenhouse gas nearly 300 times stronger than CO2. There is a trade-off between N2O and nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution: burning ammonia at a lower temperature releases more N2O, while burning it hotter emits more NOx.
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